The 2017 CNBC Disruptor 50 list of companies

Meet the 2017 CNBC Disruptor 50 companies

1 Airbnb It’s a $31 billion trip
2 Lyft The car-ownership killer with a conscience
3 WeWork Reworking the office
4 Grab Uber-growth for an Asian ride-share rival
5 Uptake Technologies Capturing Warren Buffett’s billionaire energy
6 Houzz The homiest e-catalog
7 Ginkgo Bioworks Growing products in the lab
8 Palantir Technologies Tracking the world’s secrets
9 Cylance Making cyberthreats idle
10 Udacity Closing the skills gap
11 CrowdStrike Going into the breach
12 23andMe Bring your genome home
13 Progyny Rocking the cradle
14 SpaceX Humanity’s interstellar escape plan
15 SurveyMonkey Question everything
16 Ezetap India’s answer to Apple Pay
17 GreenSky A credit to the mobile race
18 Moderna Therapeutics Going viral
19 Uber The car controversy with a valuation bigger than Tesla, GM or Ford
20 SparkCognition Deciphering the data overload
21 IEX The traders Michael Lewis made famous in a flash
22 GitHub The biggest coding party in the world
23 Bloom Energy Helping companies like Apple get off the grid
24 Drawbridge An ad strategy Facebook and Google can’t ignore
25 Jaunt VR that both Disney and Paul McCartney have experience in
26 Coursera Go to a top school, without going
27 MongoDB The BIG idea in databases
28 Qualtrics Surveying the corporate landscape
29 Domo Complete cloud cover
30 Blippar You, augmented
31 Pinterest An image is worth $11 billion
32 Illumio A new segment in cybersecurity
33 Phononic Quietly cool
34 Veniam Constructing the global superhighway of data
35 Spotify Not even Apple Music has slowed it
36 Dropbox The file-sharing economy
37 Trulioo Tracks twice as many people as Facebook: 4 billion, exactly
38 Synack Who the IRS and DoD use against hackers
39 DocuSign Signed, sealed, electronically delivered
40 Payoneer Payments without borders
41 Skillz A sport to surpass the NFL, with less injury risk
42 Blue Apron What’s for dinner
43 Robinhood There is no brokerage fee low enough
44 Zocdoc Real patient-centered health care
45 SoFi $18 billion in loans and counting
46 Foursquare A success story turned inside out
47 Warby Parker Still seeing things in new ways
48 Persado A motivational speaker that’s not human
49 Stripe Visa is banking on this platform
50 Quid The ultimate trendspotter

 

Fuente: The 2017 CNBC Disruptor 50 list of companies

LA ECONOMÍA DE SERVICIOS EN EL FUTURO INMEDIATO DE LATINOAMÉRICA

El impacto de lo digital en la competitividad es tan importante que un retraso en su adopción puede ser fatal para empresas y economías enteras, en especial en los países en vías de desarrollo. La transformación digital acrecienta hasta el extremo las diferencias en productividad entre los más innovadores y todos los demás.

Por eso, las instituciones latinoamericanas se han puesto a trabajar. La Alianza del Pacífico, con el apoyo del BID, está elaborando su Agenda Digital, que deberá ser aprobada en la próxima Cumbre de Presidentes que se celebrará en Cali el 28 de junio. Por otra parte, la CEPAL y la CAF impulsan eLAC 2018, la Agenda Digital para Latinoamérica y el Caribe. Cabría preguntarse, por cierto, si existe la necesaria coordinación entre ambas iniciativas.

Las agencias de innovación de los países que componen la Alianza del Pacífico tampoco están de brazos cruzados. Apenas hace un par de meses, se puso en marcha la Red de Agencias de Innovación InnovaAP, con el propósito de dialogar, coordinar e implementar políticas concretas para apoyar a los emprendedores e innovadores de los cuatro países.

En este contexto de transformación digital, de economías abiertas con cada vez mayor sesgo hacia los servicios, de transformación de los modelos productivos de países todavía muy apalancados en los recursos naturales, de capital humano y de capital social, tuve la oportunidad de participar en el programa E-Chile de CNN y la Fundación País Digital.

Conducido por Pelayo Covarrubias, el diálogo contó con la participación del Subsecretario de Hacienda del Gobierno de Chile, Alejandro Micco. Durante casi media hora pudimos conversar sobre los desafíos que afronta Chile en la economía de servicios y repasar algunos de los proyectos de cooperación público-privada que everis está desarrollando en diversas regiones del país.

Un placer poder formar parte de esta imprescindible discusión, que se puede contemplar íntegra en el siguiente vídeo.

Chile y las Industrias del Futuro | Arturo Herrera Sapunar | Pulse | LinkedIn

Chile y las Industrias del Futuro

Publicado el

La semana pasada quedamos asombrados con el hackeo masivo a una serie de grandes corporaciones alrededor del mundo. Este es sólo un ejemplo de cómo la tecnología está cambiando radicalmente aspectos de nuestra vida cotidiana. Como país debemos tomar acción y anticiparnos hacia donde se moverá el mundo en las próximas décadas con respecto al desarrollo, adopción y uso de tecnologías emergentes. En este sentido, nuestra visión de los últimos 20 años de desarrollo de clústeres, beneficiosa para el surgimiento y potenciamiento de nuevas industrias como por ejemplo la industria del salmón, ya no es suficiente. En esta nueva era digital, lo importante es el conocimiento y el talento emprendedor para aprovechar a nuestro favor tecnologías como la robótica, inteligencia artificial, big data, IoT, biotecnología y también de las energías limpias. Éstas cambiarán el mundo como hoy lo conocemos, muy pronto.

Hoy, gracias a la adopción a gran escala de este tipo de tecnologías, se puede observar como en Estados Unidos está ocurriendo un desacople entre dos variables que siempre estuvieron fuertemente correlacionadas: productividad y empleo. Desde el año 2000 la productividad crece a una tasa mayor que el número de personas empleadas, lo que indica que se está obteniendo una mayor productividad con menos gente empleada. Desde 1970 la productividad total en Estados Unidos ha aumentado más de un 130%. Sin embargo, los ingresos promedio por hora de trabajo han aumentado sólo un 15%. Es decir, este aumento en productividad no necesariamente se ha traducido en un mejor ingreso para las personas. ¿Quién está capturando estos beneficios? Por una parte las empresas que han mejorado sistemáticamente sus resultados, los proveedores de tecnologías que están siendo incorporadas a gran escala en diferentes industrias y, por supuesto, los países productores de este tipo de activos a través de impuestos. Sin ir más lejos en agosto del año pasado Adidas confirmó la apertura de una nueva planta en Estados Unidos 100% operada por robots (una planta similar ya está en operación en Alemania). Esto parece ser una tendencia sin vuelta atrás.

La gran paradoja detrás de esto es que las maquinas no consumen. Por lo tanto, cada puesto de trabajo reemplazado por una máquina, o un algoritmo, implica un consumidor menos, lo que en el largo plazo puede traer consecuencias insospechadas para una economía en vías de desarrollo como la nuestra, debido a que existen muchas dudas de que seamos capaces de crear nuevos puestos de trabajo con la misma velocidad con la que éstos desaparecen. Países como Noruega y Suecia ya están incorporando en sus políticas avanzar hacia una jornada laboral de 6 horas/día y en crear un salario mínimo universal que permita subsistir a las personas que quedarán fuera del mercado laboral. ¿Cómo van a financiar esto? Puede parecer simplista, pero lo más probable es que con los impuestos que paguen empresas de base tecnológica que van a ofrecer sus productos y servicios a todo el mundo.

Los países que no tengan “la suerte” de tener una industria tecnológica pujante y global no contarán con los recursos necesarios para dar sostenibilidad a su actual modelo económico.

Uno de los mejores ejemplos de la definición de dónde un país quiere estar en el futuro es Estonia. Este pequeño país de poco más de 1.4 millones de habitantes quedó, con el fin de la Unión Soviética, desprotegido pero independiente desde 1991 y con un PIB per cápita de poco más de 72 euros. 26 años después, ese indicador está por sobre los 15.900 euros. ¿Cómo? Hace 20 años Estonia se hizo el propósito de conectar al país con una de las industrias del futuro, en este caso Internet, con el fin de transformarse en la primera ‘e-society’ del planeta. Fue su estrategia de desarrollo. Desde los años 90 comenzaron con la política de instalar computadores y conectar a Internet a todos los colegios del país. Desde los primeros años de estudio se les enseña a los niños a programar, formación que es clave en el programa educativo de cada colegio. A principios del siglo XXI fueron el primer país del mundo en declarar el acceso a Internet como un derecho básico universal. Hoy no parece simple suerte o coincidencia que Estonia tenga el récord de ser el país con más startups por persona. Ahí nació Skype, una de las mayores disrupciones globales en comunicaciones. Todo el desarrollo técnico de la solución fue creado por 3 estonios: Priit Kasesalu, Ahti Heinla y Jaan Tallinn. Skype se vendió a Microsoft en 2011 por más de US$8.500 millones. Los 3 reinvirtieron lo ganado en esa venta en el ecosistema de emprendimiento de Estonia, generando una oleada de nuevas empresas de base tecnológica. Esto es sólo el comienzo, pues meses atrás el país lanzó el programa ‘e-resident’, invitando a emprendedores de todo el mundo a crear y gestionar sus empresas “desde Estonia”, por supuesto tributando ahí.

Este es solo un ejemplo de cómo una visión y estrategia de largo plazo puede redefinir el futuro de un país. Tal como hicieron los estonios, es estratégico definir en qué vamos a ser relevantes, dónde enfocaremos nuestros esfuerzos y nuestras políticas públicas en las próximas 2 décadas. La avalancha de tecnologías emergentes ha abierto un mundo de oportunidades que otros ya están tomando. ¿Qué haremos nosotros?

Columna originalmente publicada en El Mercurio // Lunes 22 de mayo de 2017

Forrester’s Top Emerging Technologies To Watch: 2017-2021

Think back just a few years — social, mobile, cloud, and big data ruled the emerging technology landscape. Business and technology management executives wondered what big data meant, when the cloud would disrupt their companies, and how to engage effectively on social channels. In 2016, Hadoop turned 10, the cloud has been around even longer, and social has become a way of business and life. So what’s next?

As a refresh to my 2014 blog and report, here are the next 15 emerging technologies Forrester thinks you need to follow closely. We organize this year’s list into three groups — systems of engagement technologies will help you become customer-led, systems of insight technologies will help you become insights-driven, and supporting technologies will help you become fast and connected.

Why these 15? You might have noticed a few glaring omissions. Certainly blockchain has garnered a lot of attention; and 3D printing is on most of our competitors’ lists. The answer goes back to being customer led, insights driven, fast, and connected. Those of you that follow our research will recognize these as the four principles of customer obsessed operations. The technologies we selected will have the biggest impact on your ability to win, serve and retain customers whose expectations of service through technology are only going up. Furthermore, our list focuses on those technologies that will have the biggest business impact in the next five years. We think blockchain’s big impact outside of financial services, for example, is further out so it didn’t make our list, even though it is important. Maybe by 2018, when I update our list next.

Since I don’t have room here for details about all of our technologies, I’ll focus on five that we think have the potential to change the world. That’s ⅓ of our list by the way – which means a lot of change is coming; it’s time to make your technology bets.

  • IoT software and solutions bring customer engagement potential within reach. Theses software platforms and solutions act as a bridge between highly specialized sensor, actuator, compute, and networking technology for real-world objects and related business software. This technology gives firms visibility into and control of customer and operational realities. By 2021, technology for specific use cases will be mature, but protocol diversity, immature standards and the need for organizational changes will still stymie or delay many firms. Want more info? Schedule an inquiry wtih my colleauge Frank E. Gillette.
  • Intelligent agents coupled with AI/cogntive technologies will automate engagement and solve tasks. Intelligent agents represent a set of AI-powered solutions that understand users’ behavior and are discerning enough to interpret needs and make decisions on their behalf. By 2021, we think that automation, supported by intelligent software agents drivng by an evolution in AI and cogntive technology will have eliminated an net 6% of US jobs. But the loss won’t be uniform. There will be an 11% loss of jobs that are vulnerable and a 5% creation of jobs in industries that stand to benefit. Want more info? Schedule an inquiry with Craig Le Clair on AI in the workforce or my colleague Jennifer Wise on intelligent agents.
  • Augmented reality overlays digital information and experiences on the physical world using combinations of cameras and displays. While we cover both VR and AR, we find that while a lot of attention has been placed on VR, AR has more play, for enteprises in the short term and eventually for consumers as well. By 2021, we will be fully into a transition period between separated and tightly blended physical and digital experiences in our work and lives. Want more info? Schedule an inquiry with my colleague J.P. Gownder.
  • Hybrid wireless technology will eventually ereate connected cverything. Hybrid wireless technologies are the interfaces and software that allow devices to simultaneously leverage and translate between two or more different wireless providers, protocols, and frequency bands, such as light, radio, Wi-Fi, cellular, and Sigfox. By 2021, a virtual network infrastructure will emerge to weave together wireless technologies that globally connect IoT and customer engagement platforms. Want more info? Schedule an inquiry with my colleague Andre Kindness.

To go deeper, listen to Forrester’s What It Means podcast episode: The New Tech Revolution, or if you are a client, please read the report. Lastly, I want say thank you and acknowledge all of the great analysts that helped with this report. Too many to name, but here are a few (check out their blogs!) – Frank Gillette, JP Gownder, Rusty Warner, Ted Schadler, Dave Bartoletti, Andre Kindness, Jeff Pollard, Fatemeh Khatibloo, John Rymer, Brendan Witcher, Dan Bieler, Michael Facemire, Rowan Curran, Noel Yuhanna, and Tina Moffett.

Five Highlights From Mary Meeker’s 2016 Internet Trends Report

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Kleiner Perkins Caulfield & Byers general partner Mary Meeker unveiled her 2016 Internet Trends report on Wednesday. (Forbes)

At 213 slides, Mary Meeker’s anticipated annual “Internet Trends” report was a gold mine of data on everything from debt-to-GDP ratios by country to U.S. Internet advertising growth.

The Kleiner Perkins Caulfield & Byers general partner unveiled her report on Wednesday at tech blog Recode’s Code Conference in Dana Point, Calif. While you can read the entire deck here, below are five trends from Meeker’s report that we found especially notable.

1.Slowing global Internet growth: Global Internet user growth was flat from 2014 to 2015 at 9% year-over-year, and down from more than 15% in 2009. Why? Meeker said it’s harder to acquire new Internet users globally now that such a high portion of people in developed countries are already online. Internet users in less developed countries are more challenging to gain because of the high cost of smartphones relative to people’s incomes. The cost of a smartphone, for example, is 15% of per capita income in Vietnam and 10% in Nigeria and India, a McKinsey study found. The notable growth anomaly is India, where Internet growth accelerated by 7%. This boost helped India surpass the U.S. to become the second largest user market, after China. The growth of global smartphone users is also slowing.

2.“Easy” economic growth is over: Global economic growth in six of the last eight years is below the 20-year average of 3.8% (from 1996 through 2015). Meeker says the cause is the decline of five of the biggest growth drivers of the past two decades: Slowing connectivity growth (Internet users have reached 3 billion, up from 35 million in 1995), falling GDP growth in emerging countries, rising government debt, plummeting interest rates and a global population that is aging and growing more slowly. The opportunity? Meeker said the slowdown creates opportunities for companies that create efficiency, add jobs, lower prices and innovate. By region, China and emerging Asia made up 63% of total real GDP growth and America, Europe and Japan together made up 29% of GDP growth.

3.The era of the image: Images are growing in importance and use, while text, and specifically textual search, are fading. Meeker said in five years, at least 50% of searches will be made through images or speech. The rise of images has a lot to do with users’ increasing use of smartphones for storytelling, sharing, messaging and creative expression. Advertising will naturally continue to be built into visual experiences through methods such as user-applied filters. Meeker says Generation Z (people age 1 to 20) will be known for their use of images. Video is becoming increasingly social (think live sports events.) And among social network users now, Facebook FB -0.52%, Snapchat and Instagram as the leading platforms for engaging millennials.

4.Messaging as the new mobile home screen: Over time, messaging apps could overtake the home screen on mobile devices. This is believable given that 80% of users’ mobile time is spent in three apps, and the average global mobile user accesses just 12 apps daily. The most commonly used apps in 2016 globally are Facebook, WhatsApp and Chrome. Messaging will shift from being simple social interactions to increasingly expressive over time and will include more and more business-related interactions. Meeker lists WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger and WeChat as the current messaging leaders.

5.Rise of voice interfaces: Meeker said voice should become the most efficient form of computing input, largely because it is hands and vision-free. Voice lends itself to an “always on” way of life. Humans can speak 150 words per minute, for instance, but can type only 40 words per minute. The conversational aspect of the medium lends itself to personalized experiences with computers understanding context from previous questions the user has asked and the user’s location. While many voice recognition tools can be frustrating to use now, Meeker said when speech recognition reaches 99% accuracy, people will go from barely using the tool to using it all the time. Speech recognition accuracy rose from about 90% in 2016 from about 70% in 2010. And the use of voice has been risen noticeably. Google GOOGL +0.67% voice search queries, for example, are up 35 times since 2008. Sales of voice-based devices such as Amazon Echo could be just about to take off, compared to more text-dominated devices such as the iPhone, whose sales peaked in 2015.

Follow me on Twitter @kchaykowski and e-mail me at kchaykowski@forbes.com.

Fuente: Five Highlights From Mary Meeker’s 2016 Internet Trends Report

The Portals Project: This gold box is ‘better than Facebook’

The Portals Project: This gold box is ‘better than Facebook’

Los Angeles (CNN)Thousands of commuters buzz by it; dozens more see it from the Starbucks line less than 100 feet away. But only a few enter this gold box in the middle of downtown Los Angeles’ Grand Park.

“That was amazing,” Bernadine Harris said as she stepped out of the shipping container covered in gold paint.
Moments before, she was speaking live to an Iraqi refugee standing in front of her — on a large video screen.
The city of Los Angeles paid for the Portals Project for two weeks.

“What we’re seeing over here on the news, I had the opportunity of actually talking to someone who’s experiencing this,” Harris said.
And that’s the goal of the Portals Project, which connects parts of the world through a network of shipping containers outfitted with video conferencing equipment.
“To connect people who wouldn’t otherwise meet,” said Amar Bakshi, who started the project in 2014 with boxes connecting New York and Iran.
“This is a time when people see each other as ‘types’ too often,” Bakshi said. “This adds a level of depth that can break up those hardened narratives.”
It’s more than a glorified use of Skype, he pointed out. The floor-to-ceiling screen inside the dimly-lit container gives users the feeling they’re talking to someone in the same room.
A card on a message board next to the box reads “This is better than Facebook!”
Ari Saperstein agreed. He heard about the Portals Project and came from Hollywood to try it out.
This gold box is 'better than Facebook'

This gold box is ‘better than Facebook’ 01:27
“I know I’m at fault for not exposing myself to people who are different from me and have different points of view,” Saperstein said.
When he steps into the box, he introduces himself to a 19-year-old man named Rahmi, sitting in a portal inside a refugee camp in Irbil, Iraq.
“How did you learn English so well?” Ari asks.
“From going to school and listening to American music,” Rahmi says.
Ari’s face lights up: “Like what?”
“Rap, and Justin Bieber,” Rahmi replies.
It was a moment of culture shock for Ari. “I think I’ll go home and listen to a little Justin Bieber in a new light now.”
After nearly a half-hour, the conversation led to a potential friendship as the two exchanged Facebook and Instagram information.
“I was really grateful,” Ari said of his portal experience. “It helps you grow and talk to people who can share new experiences with you.”
There are 24 permanent portals around the world, from Afghanistan to Germany, Mexico to Milwaukee.
Bakshi said his group is getting calls from people all over the world wanting their own portals. The cost of the project is offset by payments from US and European locations that can afford the staff and technology — for instance, the city of Los Angeles, which paid to have the portal for two weeks this month. Money from those locations is used to set up free portals in underprivileged parts of the world.
In Irbil, for example, the Portals Project funds the portal with assistance from UNICEF, Bakshi said. It serves 2,000 refugees at the camp and has a full-time curator who can translate individual conversations and organize recurring events.
In all, the portals are available to 10,000 refugees in Irbil, Berlin, Gaza City and Amman, Jordan.
“We are working to expand to six more refugee sites this year,” Bakshi said. “There are plans to put one inside a prison … and outside of a hospital in Liberia.”
Bakshi says the idea came from his days as a foreign journalist. When he returned to the United States and left journalism, he realized he missed the conversations he once had with strangers all over the world.
The portals have been to many cities and countries. This one is at the University of Maryland.

Then his grandmother told him she always regretted never re-engaging with the Pakistani homeland she fled in 1947.
“Even though the technology is at our fingertips there was no moment with which she could have just walked in, shared tea and just re-engaged a country she had fled all those years later,” Bakshi said.
She died in 2014. That same year, Bakshi started the Portals Project.
The shipping containers themselves have evolved from clunky spaces to house technology to near-empty boxes with only a screen on the wall. The leftover space allowed musicians and artists to enter the portals to share their work.
“We have people making a rap album in 15 countries, now being produced out of Milwaukee,” Bakshi said. “And kids in Mexico City have regular classes with kids in Burma.”
Milwaukee is one of four permanent locations in the United States (Baltimore, Chicago and Brooklyn are the others), with temporary installations coming to Detroit in May and San Francisco in June.
In Los Angeles, city officials said the two-week run there attracted them because it tapped into the global makeup of the city.
“Normally we’re connecting Angelenos to other Angelenos,” said Julia Diamond, Grand Park’s director of programming. “But this was a way to connect them to the world.”
Bernadine Harris was one of the first Angelenos to use the portal. As she wrapped up her conversation with an Iraqi refugee, she was determined to make a difference through her words.
“I told him, ‘God or Allah is good’,” she said. “‘You’re in our prayers and know that we’re concerned about you.'”
It appeared to work, she said. “He was smiling and jubilant and said ‘thank you so much.'”

Facebook Announces “Typing-by-Brain” Project

Facebook Announces “Typing-by-Brain” Project

A woman stands on stage at Facebook's developer conference. Behind her a giant screen displays the text: "So what if you could type directly from your brain?"
Photo: Stephen Lam/Reuters

First it was Elon Musk, now Facebook. Suddenly, all the big Silicon Valley players want to get into brain tech.

Yesterday Facebook announced that it’s working on a “typing by brain” project. At its developer conference, Facebook executive Regina Dugan promised that this brain-computer interface will decode signals from the brain’s speech center at the remarkable rate of 100 words per minute.

Dugan, who runs the Facebook moonshot lab known as Building 8, said the technology for decoding brain signals will be non-invasive. That sets Facebook’s efforts apart from Elon Musk’s mysterious new Neuralace company, which is working on tiny implants called neural dust that would likely be embedded in the blood vessels of the brain. Dugan said that Facebook has no plans for an invasive implant, saying, “Implanted electrodes simply won’t scale.”

A person with a cable connected to their head looks at a computer screen where a cursor is picking out letters in a typing program.
Photo: Stanford University
Earlier this year a group of Stanford researchers set a new speed record for typing-by-brain: A paralyzed patient typed 8 words per minute using a brain implant. It’s not clear how Facebook plans to achieve 100 words per minute using non-invasive technology.

The promise of 100 words per minute represents quite a leap from the current speed record. In February, Stanford researchers enabled a paralyzed patient to type 8 words per minute—and that was using a device implanted in his brain. In that experiment the implant was placed in the patient’s motor cortex, and he imagined moving a cursor over a screen to select letters.

Jaimie Henderson, the Stanford neurosurgeon who co-led that research, says his team searched the scientific literature for prior examples of typing-by-brain technology for people with paralysis, looking at both invasive and non-invasive systems.

The highest performing non-invasive system they found was a 2008 study from a research group in Germany that worked with ALS patients. That 2008 study “reported performance of between 1.5 and 4.1 correct characters per minute,” Henderson told IEEE Spectrum. “Assuming an average of 5 letters per word, this is between 0.3 and 0.82 words per minute.” He added that other groups are working on non-invasive systems for able-bodied people, but he hasn’t looked into those speed records.

An illustration shows a transparent human skull with a brain inside, with one region in the frontal lobe highlighted in red.
Image: Wikimedia Commons
A 19th century French physician discovered in the 1860s that a brain region called Broca’s area is involved in speech production. Facebook hasn’t divulged whether its BCI will target that region or one of the many others involved in speech.

While Dugan said Facebook’s technology will read from the brain’s speech center, it’s not clear which brain region she’s referring to. A region in the frontal lobe called Broca’s area has been known to be involved in speech production since the 1860s, but today’s neuroscientists are still figuring out the roles that many other brain regions play in speech planning and articulation.

The non-invasive technology capable of pulling off this technical feat is also still a mystery. Most non-invasive brain studies rely on EEG, where scalp electrodes provide a rough general readout of the activity of large groups of neurons.

But Facebook has something else in mind. Dugan said that the gear will use optical imaging, and Facebook press release stressed that optical imaging “is the only non-invasive technique capable of providing both the spatial and temporal resolution we need.” A Facebook spokesperson wouldn’t provide any technical details on the approach, saying only that the Building 8 team is developing optical sensors that can be worn on the body. This tech doesn’t exist yet, but they’re working on it.

To try to get some insight, IEEE Spectrum contacted an expert on speech and language processing in the brain: Thomas Naselaris, an assistant professor at the Medical University of South Carolina. Prior non-invasive “brain spellers” have relied on EEG or fMRI, he said, but those systems can’t decode brain signals with high fidelity, so they often rely on the user making binary choices to winnow down a group of letters until they get to the letter they intend to type. It’s a tedious and slow process, he said.

For Facebook to achieve whole-word or sentence decoding, they’ll have to use a drastically different brain imaging system, he said. “Our understanding of the way that words and their phonological and semantic attributes are encoded in brain activity is actually pretty good currently, but much of this understanding has been enabled by fMRI, which is noninvasive but very slow and not at all portable,” he said. “So I think that the bottleneck will be the imaging technology.”

Mark Zuckerberg added his perspective on the news in a post soon after the announcement, presenting the brain-typing project as a natural evolution of Facebook’s mission to help people share their interior worlds. If they like sharing comments, photos, and videos, why not directly share their thoughts too?

Our brains produce enough data to stream 4 HD movies every second. The problem is that the best way we have to get information out into the world — speech — can only transmit about the same amount of data as a 1980s modem. We’re working on a system that will let you type straight from your brain about 5x faster than you can type on your phone today. Eventually, we want to turn it into a wearable technology that can be manufactured at scale. Even a simple yes/no “brain click” would help make things like augmented reality feel much more natural.

Facebook also sought to get ahead of privacy concerns. The underlying message: Don’t worry about the social network introducing a direct thought-to-comment feature that tells your friends what you really think about their posts. Just read the press release and rest assured:

This isn’t about decoding random thoughts. This is about decoding the words you’ve already decided to share by sending them to the speech center of your brain. Think of it like this: You take many photos and choose to share only some of them. Similarly, you have many thoughts and choose to share only some of them.

We’ll give you updates if any details emerge about which brain region Facebook is targeting and what technology they’ll use to extract the signal.

The Facebook spokesperson did divulge a few names of researchers who have been recruited to this effort: Edward Chang at UC San Francisco, Nathan Crone and and Mike Wolmetz at Johns Hopkins University, and Jack Gallant at UC Berkeley. These researchers study the neural circuitry of speech and are investigating where semantic concepts are organized and accessed in the brain. It will be interesting to see what they do for Facebook.

Google’s Improbable Deal to Recreate the Real World in VR | WIRED

GOOGLE’S IMPROBABLE DEAL TO RECREATE THE REAL WORLD IN VRISLAND CREATOR, FROM WORLDS ADRIFT, BY BOSSA STUDIOS.LET A THOUSAND virtual worlds rain down from the clouds. Or rather, the cloud. That’s the call from Google as it gets behind a tiny British startup called Improbable.

Founded by two Cambridge graduates and backed by $20 million in funding from the venture capitalists at Andreessen Horowitz, Improbable offers a new way of building virtual worlds, including not just immersive games à la Second Life or World of Warcraft, but also vast digital simulations of real cities, economies, and biological systems. The idea is that these virtual worlds can run in a holistic way across a practically infinite network of computers, so that they can expand to unprecedented sizes and reach new levels of complexity.

Fuente: Google’s Improbable Deal to Recreate the Real World in VR | WIRED

Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2017

Published: 14 October 2016 ID: G00317560

Analyst(s): | |

Summary

Gartner’s top 10 trends will drive the future of the intelligent digital mesh. Enterprise architecture and technology innovation leaders must prepare for the impacts of these disruptive trends on people, businesses and IT departments, and determine how they can provide competitive advantage.

Overview

Key Findings

  • An intelligent digital mesh is emerging to support the future of digital business and its underlying technology platforms and IT practices. The mesh focuses on people and the Internet of Things (IoT) endpoints, as well as the information and services that these endpoints access.
  • Capabilities such as blockchains, distributed ledgers and digital twins will bring the physical and digital realms ever closer to supporting digital business initiatives.
  • Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning are the means of injecting intelligence into new and existing apps and things to form the intelligent digital mesh.
  • Relentless and ever-increasing security attacks require adaptive security architectures that emphasize security-aware solution design; AI-enabled user and entity behavior analytics; and new architecture, methods and tools to address IoT and intelligent digital mesh security.

Recommendations

Enterprise architecture and technology innovation leaders using enterprise architecture to master emerging and strategic trends must:

  • Plan for a radical, long-term (2020 to 2025) evolution of the user experience for both customers and employees as conversational systems, augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR) and continuous/contextual user experiences radically change the way people interact with systems.
  • Explore opportunities to create new systems that require AI and machine learning, and showcase their intelligent feature systems (such as virtual personal assistants [VPAs], robots and autonomous vehicles), and augment existing apps and things (for example, customer service, enterprise applications, consumer electronics and medical devices).
  • Examine specific, targeted and high-value use cases to apply AR/VR, build digital twins to support IoT initiatives, and embrace blockchains and distributed ledgers in 2017 to 2019.
  • Build a security mindset into application design and operations, while augmenting preventive controls and security monitoring with user and entity behavior analytics.

Analysis

Digital business is an overarching theme that covers how the blurring of the physical and virtual worlds is transforming business designs, industries, markets and organizations. The continuing digital business evolution exploits new digital models to align more closely the physical and digital worlds for employees, partners and customers. Technology will be embedded in everything in the digital business of the future. Rich digital services will be delivered to everything, and intelligence will be embedded in everything behind the scenes. We call this mesh of people, devices, content and services the intelligent digital mesh . It’s enabled by digital models, business platforms and a rich intelligent set of services to support digital business. As an enterprise architecture or technology innovation leader seeking to exploit the intelligent digital mesh, you must respond to the disruptive technology trends enabling this future.

Our top 10 strategic technology trends include three groupings of complementary trends (see Figure 1) that are mutually reinforcing, with amplified disruptive characteristics:

  • The intelligent theme builds on the way in which data science and programming approaches are evolving to include AI and advanced machine learning. This is enabling the creation of intelligent physical and software-based systems that are programmed to learn and adapt, rather than programmed only for a finite set of prescribed actions. AI and machine-learning capabilities are seeping into virtually every technology, and represent a major battleground for technology providers over the next five years.
  • The digital theme focuses on blending the digital and physical worlds to create an immersive, digitally enhanced environment. In the digitally enhanced mesh, the digital world is an increasingly detailed representation of the physical world. Rich digital services, connections and interfaces connect the two. Digital trends, along with opportunities enabled by AI and machine learning, are driving the next generation of digital business.
  • The mesh theme refers to exploiting connections between an expanding set of people and businesses, as well as devices, content and services, to deliver digital business outcomes. The mesh demands new interface modalities (for example, conversational interfaces), security models, technology platforms and approaches to solution design.

Strategic technology trends have substantial disruptive potential. Our top 10 list highlights strategic trends with broad industry impact that aren’t yet widely recognized. Technologies related to the strategic trends are experiencing significant changes or reaching critical tipping points in capability or maturity. Examine the business impact of our top 10 strategic technology trends, and adjust your business and IT strategies and operational models appropriately. If you don’t, you’ll risk losing competitive advantage to those who do.

Figure 1. Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2017

Research image courtesy of Gartner, Inc.

Source: Gartner (October 2016)

Trend No. 1: Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Machine Learning

Applied AI and machine learning are composed of many technologies and techniques (such as deep learning, neural networks and natural-language processing [NLP]). The more-advanced techniques move beyond traditional rule-based algorithms to create systems that appear to understand, learn, predict, adapt and potentially operate with little or no human input or guidance. This is what makes smart machines appear “intelligent.” Applied AI and machine learning enable a system to not only understand concepts in the environment, but also to learn (see Figure 2).

Figure 2. The Characteristics of Smart Machines

Research image courtesy of Gartner, Inc.

DNN = deep neural network

Source: Gartner (October 2016)

Through machine learning, a smart machine can change its future behavior. For example, by analyzing vast databases of medical case histories, “learning” machines can reveal insights in treatment effectiveness. They can apply such insights at the speed of data ingestion, making them useful augmenters of productivity and accuracy. In scenarios involving high precision, a smart machine using intelligent ensemble techniques can achieve a reduction in error rates of 5% to 30%, or even more, which may result in substantial cost savings or extra profits. Additionally, natural-language generation dynamically increases the volume and value of insights and context in data analytics. It automatically generates a specialized narrative for each user in context, to explain meaning or highlight key findings in data.

Evaluate a number of business scenarios in which AI and machine learning could drive specific business value, and consider experimenting with one or two high-impact scenarios. For example, you could use these technologies in a retail setting to pull together and analyze online purchase histories, and product likes and dislikes — from eye-gazing technologies in stores to sensory data from smartphones — to create propensity-to-buy models that predict which product a customer is most likely to buy. In banking, you could use AI and machine-learning techniques to model current real-time transactions, as well as predictive models of transactions based on their likelihood of being fraudulent. If you’re an early adopter or seeking to drive disruptive innovation, begin to implement predictive analytics, ensemble learning, and natural-language recognition and generation. If you’re a mainstream user or have more modest innovation goals, use third parties and packaged solutions with embedded AI and machine learning.

AI and advanced machine-learning techniques are evolving rapidly. Significant investment in skills, process and tools is needed to successfully exploit these techniques in terms of setup, integration, algorithm/approach selection, data preparation and model creation. In addition, exploiting the system’s learning capabilities, evaluating the accuracy of findings, and updating the algorithms and models to improve results can take significant effort, not only from the data scientists creating the system, but also from others who have the knowledge needed to “train” the system.

Applied AI and advanced machine learning give rise to a range of intelligent implementations. These include physical devices (such as robots, autonomous vehicles and consumer electronics), as well as apps and services (such as VPAs and smart advisors). These implementations will be delivered as a new class of obviously intelligent apps and things, and provide embedded intelligence for a wide range of mesh devices, and existing software and service solutions. The data science needed to create these systems is complex, so many organizations will consume applied AI and machine learning mainly through packaged intelligent apps and things, or through packaged “models as a service” that they can build into custom applications.

Related research:

Trend No. 2: Intelligent Apps

Organizations are applying AI and machine-learning techniques to create new app categories (such as VPAs) and improve traditional applications (such as worker performance analysis, sales and marketing, and security). Intelligent apps have the potential to transform the nature of work and the structure of the workplace. They could alter career structures and enhance workers’ performance, but they have challenges to overcome as they move from early-stage emerging technologies to more-robust functional products. During the next 10 years, virtually every app, application and service will incorporate some level of AI in much the same way as consumer appliances have incorporated microprocessors. Some of these apps will be obvious intelligent apps that could not exist without AI and machine learning. Others will be unobtrusive users of AI and machine learning that provide intelligence behind the scenes (see Figure 3).

Figure 3. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Will Have Obvious and Inconspicuous Uses

Research image courtesy of Gartner, Inc.

Source: Gartner (October 2016)

Some intelligent apps, such as VPAs, perform some of the functions of a human assistant. VPAs make everyday tasks easier (by prioritizing emails, for example), and their users more effective (by highlighting the most important content and interactions). Other intelligent apps, such as virtual customer assistants (VCAs), are more narrow, special-purpose apps that advise in specialty areas, sales and customer service.

VPAs such as Google Now, Microsoft’s Cortana and Apple’s Siri are becoming smarter and are a rapidly maturing type of intelligent app. Some chatbots, such as Facebook Messenger chatbots, can be powered by AI (for example, Wit.ai) to deliver an intelligent app. These intelligent apps feed into the system trend to create a new intelligent intermediary layer between people and systems. If you’re an early adopter or seeking to drive disruptive innovation, begin to implement targeted VCAs and VPAs where a high-value target persona (for example, a doctor, marketing leader or high-profit customer) could achieve significant benefit. If you’re a mainstream user or have more modest innovation goals, consider more simple rule-based chatbots and exploit prepackaged assistants or simple mobile assistants based on the VPA capabilities embedded in smartphones.

Packaged app and service providers are increasingly using AI and machine-learning techniques to deliver more robust systems. For example, many user and entity behavior analytics products use these techniques to identify patterns of potentially malicious activity. For some time, many enterprise application vendors have been incorporating predictive analytics capabilities into their offerings, either directly or through partners. As the focus on AI increases, vendors such as Salesforce, Oracle and Microsoft are incorporating more advanced AI functions in their offerings. These three vendors are exploiting AI to varying degrees, but they are all focusing on sales and marketing activities as a particularly valuable area for applying AI techniques to analyze customer and third-party data. Expect AI to become the next major battleground in a wide range of software and service markets, including aspects of ERP. Much hype will surround AI, so examine how and where AI is applied and what concrete business results it can deliver. Expect app and service providers to apply AI techniques in three areas:

  • Advanced analytics
  • Increasingly autonomous agents
  • Continuous and conversational interfaces

Expect an expanding market for models as a service. Predefined models that have been taught about a particular domain and trained to identify key patterns will be delivered as a service (often with a data feed) for incorporation into other packaged or custom applications.

During the next two to five years, we expect that B2C and B2B-to-consumer companies will adopt more smart app strategies (see “Hype Cycle for Smart Machines, 2016” ). By 2018, we expect that most of the world’s largest 200 companies will exploit intelligent apps and use the full toolkit of big data and analytical tools to refine their offerings and improve their customer experience. Discover the many different types of intelligent apps that could be created with a focus on specialization and purpose. Customers may use one or a combination of intelligent apps. For example, customers may use an intelligent app to:

  • Help with health (diet, exercise or psychological well-being)
  • Act as a personal shopping assistant
  • Act as a financial advisor
  • Help with office-specific tasks, such as calendar management, email handling and external information monitoring

Intelligent apps constitute a long-term trend that will evolve and expand the use of AI and machine learning in apps and services during the next 20 years. Establish a process to continually evaluate where your organization can apply AI today and over time. Use persona-based analysis to determine the opportunities. Compare the roadmaps for AI exploitation across your packaged app and service provider portfolio. Proceed with caution if your organization is developing applications — the underlying AI and machine-learning elements for creating intelligent apps are not ready for most application development projects at scale. Ensure such projects have a very high potential business value. Note that the competitive gaps and missed opportunity costs for laggards could be significant.

Related research:

Trend No. 3: Intelligent Things

Intelligent things are physical things that go beyond the execution of rigid programming models to exploit applied AI and machine learning. This enables them to deliver advanced behaviors and interact more naturally with their surroundings and with people. Like intelligent apps, new intelligent things (such as autonomous vehicles) can’t exist without AI and machine learning. Meanwhile, we can enhance existing things by embedding AI and machine learning invisibly into their normal operation. For example, we can turn a camera into a smart camera.

New intelligent things fit loosely into three broad categories:

  • Robots
  • Drones
  • Autonomous vehicles

Currently, the use of autonomous vehicles in controlled settings (for example, farming, mining and warehousing) is the most mature application of intelligent things. In industrial settings, vehicles can be fully autonomous. However, in more general use, autonomous automobiles must have a person in the driver’s seat in case the technology should unexpectedly fail — several U.S. states have passed laws stipulating this. In the near term, high-technology and traditional automotive manufacturers, such as Ford, Uber, Alphabet’s Google, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Tesla, Nissan, BMW and Honda, will all be testing their autonomous vehicles. For at least the next five years, we expect that semiautonomous scenarios requiring a driver will dominate. During this time, manufacturers will test the technology more rigorously, and the nontechnology issues will be addressed, such as regulations, legal issues and cultural acceptance.

Autonomous drones and robots will undergo significant technical evolution powered by new AI and machine-learning models and algorithms. They will be used mainly in narrowly defined scenarios and controlled environments. Advances in one domain — such as more sophisticated algorithms that enable a robot to learn from its environment — will often have an application in another domain.

AI and machine learning will increasingly be embedded into everyday things, such as appliances, speakers and hospital equipment. This phenomenon is closely aligned with the emergence of conversational systems, the expansion of the IoT and the trend toward digital twins. Amazon Echo is an example of an intelligent thing — it is a simple speaker connected wirelessly to an assistant powered by AI and machine learning. As conversational interfaces are delivered through other devices with a speaker or text input option, all these objects will become intelligent things.

Other markets have similar potential for embedded intelligence. For example, today’s digital stethoscope can record and store heartbeat and respiratory sounds. Collecting a massive database of such data, relating the data to diagnostic and treatment information, and building an AI-powered doctor assistance app would enable doctors to receive diagnostic support in real time. However, in the more advanced scenarios, significant issues such as liability and patient privacy must be considered. We expect that these nontechnical issues and the complexity of creating highly specialized assistants will slow embedded intelligence in industrial IoT and other business scenarios. Organizations that can address these barriers have the potential for significant competitive advantage.

Projects such as the U.S. National Robotics Initiative are pushing automation to the next level. Planning algorithms enable robots to operate autonomously on farms. Drones operating with human scouts study solutions for farmers of specialty crops. Other intelligent systems enable the design, optimization, prototyping and field-testing of mechanized harvesting systems.

As intelligent things proliferate, we expect a shift from stand-alone intelligent things to a collaborative intelligent things model. In this model, multiple devices will work together, either independently of people or with human input. For example, if a drone examined a large field and found that it was ready for harvesting, it could dispatch an “autonomous harvester.” Researchers have demonstrated a group of drones working together to construct a rope bridge, 1 while the military is studying the use of drone swarms to attack or defend military targets. 2 In the delivery market, the most effective solution may be to use an autonomous vehicle to move packages to the target area. Robots and drones on board the vehicle could then effect final delivery of the package.

Challenge the status quo on robotics. Create business scenarios and business outcome journey maps to identify and explore the opportunities that will fulfill your organization’s strategic plans. Seek opportunities to incorporate the use of emerging intelligent things in traditional manual and semiautomated tasks. For example, examine how distribution models shift as drones become safer and more effective, helping to enhance overall business performance. Expect the indirect impacts to be just as great as the direct impacts. Industry trends, such as autonomous vehicles, usher in new business designs. These require you to create proactive and predictive risk models that provide a clear view of how your organization will create value in digital ecosystems.

Related research:

Trend No. 4: Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality

Immersive technologies, such as VR and AR, are part of a new wave of computing devices that transform the way individuals interact with one another and with software systems. Head-mounted displays (HMDs) are small displays or projection technology integrated into devices worn on the head, such as glasses and helmets. HMDs derive aspects of visual content from the digital mesh. Contextual information translates the state of the wearer and the wearer’s environment into graphically rich visual cues. Many HMDs have come to market or become available for use in pilot projects in 2016. Now that commercially viable HMDs are available, the device-mesh-based apps and services that power them represent new forms of user interaction that will enable new types of consumer and workplace behaviors.

One way of experiencing immersion is using smartphone AR. The device’s screen becomes a “magic window” that displays a virtual world. This virtual world combines digital information with the physical world around the user, as captured by the device’s camera. Smartphone AR combines digital mesh data (such as wiring schematics) with the information from the smartphone’s sensors (such as its camera). It superimposes contextual information that blends augmented data on top of real-world objects (such as hidden wiring superimposed on an image of a wall). Although this approach has significant limitations compared with more robust HMD-based approaches, it represents a widely available low-cost entry point.

Smartphones can also be an effective platform for mobile VR. Google Cardboard and Samsung Gear VR are great examples of low-cost devices that use a smartphone as their computing platform. Snap your smartphone into one of these devices, hold it to your eyes, and see and interact with compelling virtual worlds. Although these devices are considered to be at the low end of quality, they still offer the flexibility of a mobile platform. Today’s use cases are firmly centered in the consumer domain, such as watching a 360-degree immersive video or playing an immersive video game. But businesses can also use mobile VR, either for marketing (to deliver personalized product experiences), or as a tool to communicate with employees.

Dedicated HMD devices, such as Oculus Rift (VR) and Microsoft HoloLens (AR), enable more sophisticated immersive interactions. These devices allow businesses to use the power of virtual worlds and augmented spaces to integrate more effectively with the human perceptual system and have a greater impact. VR devices in this category are wired to PCs or game consoles and require advanced graphics capabilities. Businesses can use these VR systems, initially intended for the consumer market and game players, in many scenarios. Training is a great example, with the virtual world simulating equipment or situations, and the sophisticated graphics capabilities ensuring that equipment looks and behaves as though real. Using VR, employees can train for many equipment use scenarios, including ones, such as catastrophic malfunction, that don’t happen often, but that need immediate attention. Businesses are also using VR for site inspections. VisualSpection provides VR headgear that allows inspection teams in the field to improve efficiency by 30%.

AR, which vendors are also marketing as mixed reality, is the best way to blend the real and virtual worlds. Using see-through displays, an AR device can track and overlay graphics onto real-world objects. Business provides the first use cases. They include DHL’s use of wearables and AR in a warehouse toachieve a 25% improvement in the picking process. 3 Our research has found that 11% of organizations are already using AR, and 13% are piloting it. 4

The landscape of immersive consumer and business content and applications will evolve dramatically through 2021. The market for HMDs will grow and evolve significantly in 2017 and 2018. Figure 4 shows our forecast for sales of HMDs through 2020. In the near term, consumers will rapidly adopt HMDs, with video games being the first popular HMD app type. More-specialized HMDs, and VR and AR content solutions, will become available for businesses. Through 2021, HMD technology will improve drastically.

Figure 4. Forecast for Sales of Head-Mounted Displays, 2015-2020

Research image courtesy of Gartner, Inc.

Source: Gartner (October 2016)

Integration of VR and AR with multiple mobile, wearable, IoT and sensor-rich environments and conversational systems (the mesh) will extend immersive applications beyond isolated and single-person experiences. Rooms and spaces will become active with things, and their connection through the mesh will appear and work in conjunction with immersive virtual worlds. Imagine a warehouse that can not only recognize the presence of workers, but also help them understand the state of its equipment, and can visually point out areas needing attention. Although the potential of VR and AR is impressive, there will be many challenges and roadblocks.

Identify key target personas and explore digital mesh scenarios. For example, explore the needs of, and business value for, a target user in different settings, such as at home, in a car, at work, with a customer or traveling.

Related research:

Trend No. 5: Digital Twins

A digital twin is a dynamic software model of a physical thing or system that relies on sensor data to understand the state of the thing or system, respond to changes, improve operations, and add value. Digital twins include a combination of:

  • Metadata (for example, classification, composition and structure)
  • Condition or state (for example, location and temperature)
  • Event data (for example, time series)
  • Analytics (for example, algorithms and rules)

By 2020, we estimate there will be more than 21 billion connected sensors and endpoints, and digital twins will exist for potentially billions of things. Benefits will include asset optimization and improved user experience in nearly all industries. Initially, businesses will use digital twins for more complex, high-value assets, but eventually, they will use them for lower-value assets based on the use model. They will use digital twins to:

  • Repair equipment and plan for its service
  • Predict equipment failure or increase operational efficiency
  • Plan manufacturing processes
  • Operate factories
  • Perform enhanced product development (by simulating the behavior of new products based on digital-twin insight from previous products, taking into account their cost, environment and performance)

Industries with high-value assets (for example, transportation and manufacturing) and industries with mission-critical remits (for example, aerospace and defense) instrument and model complex things (for example, cars, aircraft, spacecraft, machines and pumps). However, the degree of integration between the digital model and the operation of the physical thing varies greatly. These industries can use digital twins to evolve from a traditional preventive maintenance schedule to predictive, condition-based asset maintenance.

The idea of modeling the much larger number of common things — cars, buildings and consumer products — from virtual models, with functional behavior embedded to make day-to-day decisions about the physical world, is only just emerging. Today, digital twins are used by only a few professional communities, such as product engineers and data scientists, in select industries, such as manufacturing and utilities. During the next five to 10 years, operations managers will also use them for a broader set of assets where the cost-benefit analysis of risks in operations makes the case for digital twins compelling.

If your organization has high-value assets, consider using digital twins to help increase their manageability, flexibility, reliability and efficiency. The shift from preventive to predictive (condition-based) maintenance is a particularly well-established, high-value use of digital twins. Ideally, a digital twin implements one-for-one monitoring and control for each distinct physical asset. Authorized parties can query or control the digital-twin counterpart.

If your organization has lower-value assets, consider whether you can use simpler digital twins economically to improve the reliability and user experience of those assets. Digital twins don’t have to be comprehensive. You might be able to achieve a substantial benefit by instrumenting and modeling only one critical component of a device — for example, only the high-value, critical compressor in an air conditioner. Beware of overengineering a digital twin at the risk of adding unnecessary cost (for sensors, data collection and analysis, for example) when simpler models are as effective. However, you’ll probably require more sophisticated digital models when building intelligent things.

Digital twins are proxies for a combination of skilled individuals (such as technicians) and traditional monitoring devices and controls (for example, pressure gauges and pressure valves). Organizations that perform sophisticated work, such as NASA and the military, have been building complex models of their assets for years. However, most organizations will implement simple digital-twin models or link digital services to data feeds from the physical asset at first. They will then evolve the models and services, improving their ability to collect and visualize the right data, apply the right analytics and rules, and respond more effectively to the changing condition of things. Increasingly, digital services and digital-twin models will provide the digital capabilities that the physical asset needs in order to operate (see Figure 5). This will require a culture change. Technicians, engineers and operations personnel who understand the operation and maintenance of real-world things must collaborate with data scientists and other IT professionals who use digital twins and have an expanding role in improving safety, reliability and performance.

Figure 5. Digital-Twin Models Are Digital-Entity Models for Assets

Research image courtesy of Gartner, Inc.

Source: Gartner (October 2016)

Approach digital twins incrementally, concentrating on immediate business value. If your organization is on the leading edge, focused on disruptive innovation or in an industry with complex assets, be more aggressive in exploiting digital twins, despite the emerging status of the trend. If your organization is more mainstream, with more-modest innovation needs and less complex assets, take a slower approach. Create simple digital twins that monitor and control crucial aspects of things, then expand your digital twins over time to represent things more comprehensively. Seek IoT solutions — either IoT devices or IoT software — that provide digital-twin templates that you can use to create digital twins for your particular requirements and assets.

Related research:

Trend No. 6: Blockchains and Distributed Ledgers

A distributed ledger is an expanding list of cryptographically signed, irrevocable transactional records shared by all participants in a network. Each record contains a time stamp and reference links to the previous transactions. With this information, anyone with access rights can trace back a transactional event, at any point in its history, belonging to any participant.

A blockchain is a type of distributed ledger in which value-exchange transactions (in bitcoin or another token) are sequentially grouped into blocks (see Figure 6). Each block is chained to the previous block and immutably recorded across a peer-to-peer network, using cryptographic trust and assurance mechanisms. Depending on the implementation, transactions can include programmable behavior. The term “blockchain” is also used to refer to a loosely combined set of technologies and processes that span middleware, database, security, analytics/AI, monetary and identity management concepts. Blockchain is also becoming the common shorthand for a diverse collection of distributed-ledger products, with more than 20 offerings in the market.

Figure 6. Key Elements of Blockchains and Distributed Ledgers

Research image courtesy of Gartner, Inc.

Source: Gartner (October 2016)

Blockchain and distributed-ledger concepts are gaining attention, because they hold the promise to transform industry operating models. Multiple business use cases are yet to be proven, but 52% of those we surveyed believe that blockchains will affect their business. 5 Although the hype surrounding blockchains concerns their use in the financial services industry, they have many potential applications beyond financial services, including music distribution, identity verification, title registry and supply chain. Smart contracts enabled by blockchain technology will drive the programmable economy. It is likely that blockchain technology will evolve and be rapidly accepted by the manufacturing, government, healthcare and education sectors.

Today, bitcoin is the only proven blockchain. Its permissionless architecture not only supports bitcoin transactions, but also enables authoritative recording of events, immutable snippets of data and simple programmable scripts. These features are exciting, but come at a cost, including:

  • Lack of scalability
  • Lack of complete transparency
  • Limitations concerning consumption of resources
  • Operational risk from unintended centralization of resources (mining)
  • Lack of alignment to, and accommodation of, existing legal and accounting frameworks

Other blockchain technologies bring further adoption challenges, including a lack of:

  • Standards
  • Robust platforms
  • Scalable distributed consensus systems
  • Interoperability mechanisms

There are three types of ledgers:

  • Permissionless public ledgers: Operate for any (unknown/untrusted) user. Users can access the ledger and contribute transactions or new sets of data. Examples: The bitcoin blockchain or Ethereum.
  • Permissioned private ledgers: Operate exclusively within a defined community of known/trusted participants, such as financial institutions and government agencies. The community (or designated authority) controls access and contribution to the ledger. Examples: Chain, Bankchain, SETL and Domus Tower.
  • Permissioned public ledgers: Operate on behalf of a community of interest. The access controls are owned/managed by rules. Example: Ripple.

A critical aspect of blockchain technology today is the unregulated, ungoverned creation and transfer of funds, exemplified by bitcoin. It is this capability that funds much of blockchain development, but also concerns regulators and governments. The debates about permissioned, permissionless, hybrid and private ecosystems and governance will force a more-robust analysis of distributed ledgers. As these analyses are completed, workable solutions will evolve.

Blockchains and distributed ledgers make transactions simpler. Using a public blockchain can potentially remove the need for central authorities in arbitrating transactions. This is because trust is built into the model through immutable records on a distributed ledger. The potential of this technology to radically transform economic interactions should raise critical questions for society, governments and enterprises, for which there are no clear answers today. Begin evaluating blockchains and distributed ledgers, even if you don’t aggressively adopt the technologies in the next few years.

Most distributed-ledger initiatives are still in the early alpha or beta testing stage. Recent versions incorporate assets, data and executable programs allowing for customized applications. These ecosystems have value, but concerns remain about, for example, the viability of the technologies, startups, security (software and hardware), scalability, legality and interoperability. It is likely that development will continue in parallel for the immediate future, and it is probable that two or more ledger models will operate together.

Develop clear language and definitions for internal discussions about the nature of the technology. Recognize that the terminology surrounding blockchains is in flux. This uncertainty masks the potential suitability of technology solutions to meet business use cases. Consequently, use extreme caution when interacting with vendors that have ill-defined/nonexistent blockchain offerings. Ensure you are clearly identifying how the term “blockchain” is being used and applied, both internally and by providers. Closely monitor distributed-ledger developments, including related initiatives, such as consensus mechanism development, sidechains and blockchains. Resources permitting, consider distributed ledger as proof-of-concept development. But, before embarking on a distributed-ledger project, ensure your team has the cryptographic skills to understand what is and isn’t possible. Identify the integration points with existing infrastructures to determine the necessary future investments, and monitor the platform evolution and maturation.

Related research:

Trend No. 7: Conversational Systems

A conversational UI is a high-level design model in which user and machine interactions occur mainly in the user’s spoken or written natural language. Interactions are typically informal and bidirectional. The interaction may be a simple request or question (such as “Stop!” or “What time is it?”) with a simple result or answer. However, the interaction can also be extremely complex (such as collecting oral testimony from crime witnesses), resulting in highly complex results (the creation of a suspect’s image based on witness testimony, for example).

NLP will rapidly replace rule-based synonym and phrase substitution approaches. Dynamic natural-language ontologies or knowledge graphs at multiple levels of specificity will be needed to support NLP capabilities, such as disambiguation, concept identification and relationship extraction.

A conversational system uses a conversational UI as its main interface mode. People and machines communicate across a wide range of mesh devices (such as sensors, appliances and IoT systems). Immersive, continuous and contextual user experience elements enable this communication using a range of input/output modalities (such as sight, sound, touch, smell, taste and radar). The “conversation” between the human and the machine uses all these modalities to create a comprehensive conversational experience.

The conversational technology from major technology providers such as Apple (Siri), Google (Google Now), Amazon (Alexa) and Microsoft (Cortana) will deliver an increasingly intelligent contextual experience. This will act as an intermediary service between users and the rapidly growing set of apps and content on their mobile devices and in the cloud.

User experiences with general-purpose VPAs are often unsatisfying, because the systems try to address a very broad set of question and action scenarios. Amazon has shown that a narrower focus increases usability. Amazon’s Echo appliance and Alexa assistant have a more narrowly targeted set of question and action domains with a focus on developing related “skills” that are simple and intuitive. VPA experiences will improve as the AI back end for VPA systems continues to evolve and providers open up their systems for developers to provide tighter links to their applications for targeted scenarios. In addition, the evolving models for delivering voice-enabled solutions will expand conversational systems well beyond speaker appliances and mobile devices.

The current conversational interface method focuses on devices with microphones and speakers, but not necessarily devices with screens. However, the device mesh — one of our top 10 strategic technology trends for 2016 — encompasses an expanding set of endpoints that people use to access applications and information, or to interact with people, social communities, governments and businesses. The device mesh moves beyond the traditional desktop computer and mobile devices (tablets and smartphones) to cover the full range of endpoints with which people might interact. We expect significant innovation in new types of devices during the next five years. User experience and app design are shifting with this expanding set of endpoints.

As the device mesh evolves, we expect that connection and interface models will expand, and greater cooperative interaction between devices will develop. This will provide an immersive and continuous conversational experience. New input/output mechanisms will emerge using audio, video, touch, taste, smell and other sensory channels, such as radar, that extend beyond human senses. This will enable people to communicate with systems, and systems to communicate with people, in rich conversations that include more than text and voice (see Figure 7).

Figure 7. Conversational Systems Include New User Experience Design Elements

Research image courtesy of Gartner, Inc.

I/O = input/output

Source: Gartner (October 2016)

Apps will target an orchestrated collection of devices being used together, rather than an individual device used in isolation. This will preserve continuity of user experience across traditional boundaries of devices, time and space. Users will be able to interact with an application in a dynamic multistep sequence that may last for an extended period. The experience will flow seamlessly across multiple devices and interaction channels. It will blend physical, virtual and electronic environments. And it will use real-time contextual information as the ambient environment changes, or as the user moves from one place to another.

The shifting user experience will create many new digital business opportunities, but will also pose significant IT security and management challenges. The realization of the continuous, immersive and conversational user experience will require a profoundly better appreciation of privacy and permission. Missteps by some organizations will probably lead to regulation that will affect everyone.

Related research:

Trend No. 8: Mesh App and Service Architecture

Exploiting the opportunities and dealing with the dynamism of the intelligent digital mesh require changes to the architecture, technologies and tools used to design, develop and deliver solutions. The mesh app and service architecture (MASA) is a multichannel solution architecture that supports multiple users in multiple roles using multiple devices and communicating over multiple networks to access application functions. The architecture encapsulates services and exposes APIs at multiple levels and across organizational boundaries. It balances the demand for agility and scalability of services with their composition and reuse. The MASA enables users to have an optimized solution for targeted endpoints (such as desktops, smartphones and automobiles), as well as a continuous experience as they shift across these different channels.

Miniservices and microservices are highly complementary service models in the MASA. Monolithic applications are refactored into shared, reusable miniservices that reduce the scope of a service down to an individual capability. Miniservices are designed to support composition and reuse. These services publish APIs that can be accessed from client apps and from other services, and they enable integration and interoperability across application systems.

Microservices reduce the scope of a service down to an individual feature or function optimized for agility and scalability at a detailed feature level. Typically, a microservice doesn’t publish its API for access outside its immediate application scope.

Teams often build a miniservice to publish an API that encapsulates a set of microservices that together implement a capability. The miniservice surfaces the capability (to mobile apps, for example), while the microservices implement the individual features within the capability. Applications themselves may expose a higher-level set of APIs that don’t expose all the underlying miniservice APIs.

Abstraction via APIs is a core MASA principle. OS containers represent an approach providing a higher level of abstraction above the virtual machine. Serverless computing is another abstraction model building on these concepts and gaining ground. In this cloud computing model, the provider fully manages the infrastructure (for example, virtual machines) to serve application requests so that the developer doesn’t have to think about the server resources. This is why it is called “serverless,” although the provider still owns and operates servers behind the scenes. MASA exploits both containers and serverless computing, in addition to APIs and events connecting services, to support a more agile, flexible and rapid-change environment.

Digital twins, IoT solutions and conversational AI platforms (such as Microsoft’s Cortana, Google Now, Apple’s Siri and Amazon Echo/Alexa) require an event-driven approach. However, most production systems are designed for web APIs and request-driven synchronous application architectures, including most service-oriented architecture (SOA) implementations and REST-based design. MASA approaches will shift to an “events first, response second” approach during the next five years. Both models are essential to modern business, but in the intelligent digital mesh, the main focus will shift toward the event-driven model (see Figure 8). For example, responding in real time to a distress signal from a home device, changing trucking itineraries in response to new road or weather information, and providing “live” purchase order support can empower customers and create a differentiating business advantage.

Figure 8. The Shift to a Central Role for Event Processing in Digital Business

Research image courtesy of Gartner, Inc.

Source: Gartner (October 2016)

The event-driven model is particularly suitable to web-scale application design, where microservices seek to maximize autonomy and agility, and where autonomy enables parallelism for extreme scale. Event-driven architecture optimizes for agility, resiliency, lower cost for change and extension, open-ended design, and web scale. The request-driven and event-driven application design models are complementary. Both can be useful and appropriate, depending on the type of business process being implemented. However, most organizations use event processing for narrow purposes in isolated application contexts — they don’t consider it a prevailing application design model equal to the common request-driven SOA. This must change to accommodate the push to digital business and enable organizations to choose the most appropriate design model for the task at hand.

As adoption of event processing as a mainstream model of application design increases, the complementary use of service-oriented and event-driven architectures will transform the MASA into a mesh of apps, events and services.

Related research:

Trend No. 9: Digital Technology Platforms

A digital technology platform is a symbiotic collection of technology capabilities and components. These provide an interoperable set of services that can be brought together to create applications, apps and services. Digital technology platforms provide the basic building blocks for, and are a critical enabler of, digital business. The platform viewpoint gives you a technology anchor model to guide technology vision, reducing complexity and redundancy.

We have identified five major digital technology platform types to enable the new capabilities and business models of digital business:

  • Information system platform — Supports the back office, operations such as ERP, core systems, and associated middleware and development capabilities to deliver solutions.
  • Customer experience platform — Contains the main customer-facing elements, such as customer and citizen portals, multichannel commerce, and customer apps.
  • Analytics and intelligence platform — Contains information management and analytical capabilities. Data management programs and analytical applications fuel data-driven decision making, and algorithms automate discovery and action.
  • IoT platform — Connects physical assets for monitoring, optimization, control and monetization. Capabilities include connectivity, analytics, and integration with core and operational technology systems.
  • Business ecosystem platform — Supports the creation of, and connection to, external ecosystems, marketplaces and communities. API management, control and security are the main elements.

The MASA highlights key platform elements for the information system and business ecosystem platforms. These include the move to modular API and event-driven services, as well as the associated tools (such as API management) to operate these next-generation systems. Two other elements are emerging to deliver customer experience, advanced analytics and intelligence, and the IoT: IoT platforms and conversational AI platforms (CAPs).

IoT platforms are a collection of technologies and standards that form a base set of capabilities for communicating, controlling, managing and securing elements of the IoT. Flexible and stable IoT platform services are needed for building IoT solutions and connecting them to business solutions. Leading organizations with multiple IoT initiatives create IoT centers of excellence to aid the cross-disciplinary collaboration required for success. Although IoT platforms are essential, they remain fragmented and immature, requiring complex integration efforts. Entrants to the IoT platform market are driving rapid change from specialized IoT platforms toward more comprehensive offerings.

CAPs are general-purpose platforms that deliver a new paradigm supporting AI-rich, pervasive, proactive and conversational applications (see Figure 9). A range of focused AI services are needed, including NLP, deep learning, sentiment analysis, personality profiling, concept-relationship extraction, and other methods for inferring intent from content and context.

Figure 9. Abstract System Model for Conversational Artificial Intelligence Platform

Research image courtesy of Gartner, Inc.

Source: Gartner (October 2016)

The conversational aspect of the CAP supports the development of conversational systems, with NLP rapidly replacing rule-based synonym and phrase substitution to interpret user input. Dynamic natural-language ontologies or knowledge graphs at multiple levels of specificity will be needed to support NLP capabilities, such as disambiguation, concept identification and relationship extraction.

Tools and services to support immersive, continuous and contextual experience that goes beyond the voice-/text-powered conversational interface deliver the pervasive aspect of the CAP. The CAP’s proactive aspect offers nondisruptive simplification for the user, with the system adapting to the user rather than the user having to adapt to the system. The platform detects patterns in the user’s behavior, asks questions to clarify the user’s requests, provides unsolicited and meaningful suggestions, and autonomously takes action on the user’s behalf. CAP-enabled applications move away from fixed commands for communications between people, bots, agents, assistants, applications and other services. Many vendors are speeding to market with new CAPs that will host a broad range of solutions.

The IoT platform benefits from the CAP in many ways. The CAP’s conversational nature removes the need for the user to recall specific commands, syntax or parameters for remote-control IoT use cases. By its nature, an IoT system can consist of a myriad of protocols up and down the stack (see “IoT Communications Architecture Demystified” ). The CAP’s NLP capabilities provide an abstraction that can potentially ease cross-protocol communication issues. The CAP’s AI capabilities enable it to learn from data ingested from individual objects over time. This provides more value to the overall IoT system and can accelerate digital-twin efforts.

Similarly, the CAP benefits from the IoT platform in several ways. The IoT platform provides the underlying infrastructure that facilitates communication and action among users, objects and applications. The IoT platform enables the CAP to reach out not only to apps, but also to individual objects and systems (and their associated data and analytics). The IoT provides data from more sources (input), as well as potential actions that affect the physical world (output). This allows for a richer CAP experience for the user, with more opportunities for automation and efficiency.

Technology providers are already starting to experiment with the symbiotic relationship between the CAP and IoT-related platform services. In its August 2016 update, Microsoft’s Skype division added the “If This Then That” (IFTTT) bot to its bot directory. 6 It can interact with more than 50 different types of IoT devices, ranging from cars to wearables to connected home devices.

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Trend No. 10: Adaptive Security Architecture

The intelligent digital mesh and related digital technology platforms and application architectures create an ever-more-complex world for security. The continuing evolution of the “hacker industry” and its use of increasingly sophisticated tools — including the same advanced technologies available to enterprises — significantly increase the threat potential. Relying on perimeter defense and rule-based security is inadequate and outdated, especially as organizations exploit more cloud-based services and open APIs for customers and partners to create business ecosystems. IT leaders must focus on detecting and responding to threats, as well as more traditional measures, such as blocking, to prevent attacks and other abuses. Organizations will need security-aware application design, application self-protection, user and entity behavior analytics, API protection, and specific tools and techniques to address IoT and intelligent app/thing vulnerabilities.

Security architecture starts with network security and access control, vulnerability management, endpoint protection and basic monitoring. However, these controls alone are insufficient. Hackers target applications and content sources, as well as individual services that have intentionally been opened to the outside world to promote the development of business ecosystems, and digital-twin models that can monitor and control physical assets. Applications, services and models are a critical element in the security equation, and a security mindset is vital when designing, developing and testing these applications.

Organizations must overcome the barriers between security teams and application teams, much as DevOps tools and processes overcome the divide between development and operations. Security teams can’t afford to wait until the end of the build-and-release pipeline to offer meaningful feedback. Security requirements must be clearly communicated and easily integrated into work processes. Security teams must work with application, solution and enterprise architects to build security into the overall DevOps process, resulting in a DevSecOps model.

User and entity behavior analytics are an important emerging category of security (see Figure 10). They profile and baseline the activity of users, peer groups and other entities, such as endpoints, applications and networks. They correlate user and other entity activities and behaviors, and detect anomalous behavior and patterns using advanced machine learning and statistical models that compare activity to profiles. User and entity behavior analytics show, for example, whether individuals are visiting sites they haven’t visited before or are downloading things they don’t normally download. Unusual behavior triggers alarms or an automated response. Much venture capital exists in this area, along with new tools and technologies.

Figure 10. User and Entity Behavior Analytics

Research image courtesy of Gartner, Inc.

DAP = database audit and protection; DLP = data loss prevention; SIEM = security information and event management

Source: Gartner (October 2016)

Traditional infrastructure and perimeter protection technologies can’t ensure accurate detection of application vulnerabilities and protection against application-level attacks. Moreover, they can’t protect against behind-the-perimeter insider attacks, which are as devastating as outsider attacks. Therefore, technologies are emerging that enable application security self-testing, self-diagnostics and self-protection. Still, application-layer controls that are external to the application play an important role in defending against distributed denial-of-service and automated attacks, as well as providing security capabilities on behalf of a group of protected applications.

The scale and diversity of the intelligent digital mesh poses a significant security challenge. This is driving the need for robust IoT security architecture and practices with a particular focus on endpoint devices. The IoT elements are diverse and use much non-IT hardware and many protocols, creating additional challenges. Moreover, the bridging of the divide between IT and operational technology sees a disconnection between traditional IT security technologies and practices, with engineers more familiar with, and focused on, reliability and safety practices.

Resilience and security need to be designed into digital business solutions. Business stakeholders must include privacy, safety and reliability objectives, and consider protection as well as recovery. Organizations that embrace the DevSecOps model emphasizing security-aware app/service/model design are best placed to accomplish this goal. As demonstrations of automobile hacking have shown, 7 design considerations must include levels of isolation between solution components. Different levels of security must be applied based on the risk exposure of different systems.

Digital twins consolidate massive amounts of information on individual assets and groups of assets, often providing control of those assets. As the digital-twin trend evolves, twins will communicate with one another to create “digital factory” models of multiple linked digital twins. Digital twins of assets will be linked to other digital entities for people (digital personas), processes (law enforcement) and spaces (digital cities). Understanding the links across these digital entities, isolating elements where needed and tracking interactions will be vital to support a secure digital environment.

A number of factors can help secure the IoT environment. Ensure that device hardware and software are resistant to attacks and are secure (for example, by implementing secure software updates). Secure all access and communication channels with appropriate access control, authentication or encryption, and closely monitor API access to systems, particularly where these APIs are intentionally opened for outside entities. Use established security technologies as a baseline to secure IoT platforms. Monitor user and entity behavior, particularly in IoT scenarios. Implement sufficient security monitoring and management practices for edge devices, including secure updates. However, the IoT edge is a new frontier for many IT security professionals, creating new vulnerability areas. It often requires new remediation tools and processes that must be factored into IoT platform efforts.

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Gartner Recommended Reading

Evidence

1 N. Lavars, “Drones Autonomously Build a Walkable Rope Bridge,” New Atlas, 22 September 2015.

2 L. Seligman, “How Swarming Drones Could Change the Face of Air Warfare,” DefenseNews, 17 May 2016.

3 “DHL Successfully Tests Augmented Reality Application in Warehouse,” DHL, 26 January 2015.

4 Gartner conducted a survey about digital technologies and transformation. We asked representatives from 208 organizations about subjects, including their use of AR. We found that:

  • Eleven percent are already using AR.
  • Thirteen percent are piloting AR.
  • Thirteen percent plan to implement AR in the next year.
  • Seventeen percent expect to implement AR within two to three years.

5 Gartner surveyed 208 organizations about digital business transformation.

6 Pradeep, “Microsoft Introduces New Bots Into the Skype Bot Directory,” MSPoweruser, 3 August 2016.

7 A. Greenberg, “The Jeep Hackers Are Back to Prove Car Hacking Can Get Much Worse,” Wired, 1 August 2016.

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Fuente: Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2017